Climate News
May and June heatwaves linked to about 2,700 deaths in England and Wales, study estimates
About 2,700 people in England and Wales died early because of this year's May and June heatwaves, according to an estimate by researchers from Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Al Jazeera reported that the study counted 550 heat-related deaths between 21 and 29 May and nearly 2,200 between 18 and 28 June. The Guardian said about 440 people a day died during the three-day peak of the June heatwave.
The researchers used weather data, climate models and earlier studies of excess deaths. According to The Guardian, more than 40% of those who died would not have died without the 1.4C of human-caused warming so far. The scientists said climate change made the heatwaves 3C to 4C hotter. England reached 35.1C in May and 37.7C in June. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said it would publish its own official estimate in the coming weeks.
"We've reached the point where the heat is so extreme that we can't help but acknowledge the impacts it has." — Dr Clair Barnes, Imperial College London, via The Guardian
How each outlet framed it
- The Guardian — the daily death rate, the share caused by warming, and campaigners' criticism that the UK is unprepared.
- Al Jazeera — the study set beside Europe-wide excess-death data, with a Met Office scientist on how early the heat came.
- Khaleej Times — the AFP version, worded more carefully: 2,700 "may have died".
- Express & Star — the UK regional view, leading on the "deadly climate impact".
Where the numbers differ: for Europe as a whole, Al Jazeera cited EuroMOMO data showing 10,650 excess deaths between 22 and 28 June. The Guardian said the June heatwave was estimated to have cost more than 20,000 lives. The two figures cover different periods and use different methods.
What we don't know yet: how close the UKHSA's official count, based on death records, will be to this model-based estimate.