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Cheaper rice, dearer bread: Japan's first rice price fall in 3.5 years meets 2,566 July hikes

Two June reports show Japanese food prices moving in opposite directions. Keystone-SDA, citing a government official speaking to AFP, reported on June 19 that rice prices in May were 5.4% below a year earlier, excluding the premium Koshihikari variety. It was the first drop since November 2022, after prices nearly doubled year on year by mid-2025 following poor harvests, panic buying and a record influx of tourists.

Eleven days later, Jiji Press reported that major food and beverage makers plan to raise prices on 2,566 items in July, according to a Teikoku Databank survey of 195 companies. That is up 21.9% from a year earlier, the first year-on-year rise in seven months. Processed foods account for 1,084 items and bread products for 1,078. Yamazaki Baking is raising shipping prices of white bread, including its Royal Bread series, by an average of 6.6%, and Toyo Suisan is lifting cup noodle prices by 4–11%.

Jiji said higher crude oil and naphtha prices had pushed up packaging and raw material costs, describing the rises as "driven by rising costs linked to tensions in the Middle East".

How each outlet framed it

• Keystone-SDA — the end of the rice shock, set against two years of shortages and government stock releases.
• Jiji Press — the next wave of hikes, with named brands and the energy link.

What we don't know yet: Jiji reported that food hikes are likely to peak by October and the annual total could reach 20,000 items. Its cumulative 2026 count of 14,902 should be read with care, as the report describes it as based on items identified through November.