Economy Talk

Warsh's first meeting: a nurse's reading of the dot plot (long, sorry)

I'm a nurse in Bengaluru so economics is a hobby, but I spent my night shift break reading the comparison on Warsh's first Fed meeting and want to check my understanding.

The facts from the post: rates held at 3.50–3.75%, unanimous vote, fourth hold of 2026, and all forward guidance removed. In the projections nine officials expect a rise by end-2026, nine expect hold or cut, and Warsh himself submitted nothing. Inflation forecast for end-2026 is 3.6%, up from 2.7% in March. May CPI was 4.2%.

So my reading: the committee is split exactly in half, and the chair is deliberately not showing his hand. That's why the Dow went from an intraday record to closing down 1%. Markets hate not knowing. And "Inflation is a choice" sounds like a hawk to me, which is funny given who appointed him.

Am I reading this right? And does the RBI usually follow when the Fed turns hawkish?