Climate News
El Niño is here: NOAA declares it and gives a 63% chance of a 'very strong' event
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on 11 June that El Niño conditions are under way in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures there have passed the threshold of 0.5C above average that NOAA uses to define El Niño, the BBC reported. NOAA's outlook gives a 63% chance of a very strong event, above 2C, during November–January, which would rank among the largest since 1950, alongside 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.
Bloomberg noted that the Japan Meteorological Agency had announced El Niño conditions a day earlier, on 10 June. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology uses a stricter 0.8C threshold and said only that the Pacific was "approaching El Niño conditions". A very strong El Niño typically raises global air temperatures by about 0.2C, and the BBC said another record-hot year is most likely in 2027.
"El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." — António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, via the Climate Centre
How each outlet framed it
- BBC News — the science and the stakes: thresholds, past giants and a likely record year in 2027.
- Bloomberg — a global explainer, with Japan's announcement first.
- Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre — preparedness: which regions tend to get floods and which get drought.
- Pattaya Mail — the Thai view: a possible "Super El Niño" and 12–18 months of disruption.
Where the numbers differ: NOAA gives 63% for a very strong event; Bloomberg cites a 67% chance of a strong or very strong one. They measure different thresholds.