Climate Talk

NOAA at 82% for El Niño: a quick nerdy breakdown

The jump from 61% in April to 82% in May is big. They also give 96% that it persists through the northern winter, and 37% for a very strong event.

The interesting bit: the Pacific is still officially ENSO-neutral, because ocean and atmosphere aren't reinforcing each other strongly yet. But warm water below the surface has been building for six months, and Niño 3.4 sits at +0.4C, just under the +0.5C threshold. So the fuel is there, it just hasn't fully caught.