Economy News

Oil climbs back towards $100 as US-Iran talks stall and Hormuz stays shut

Three weeks after the US-Iran ceasefire sent oil tumbling, prices were back near their wartime highs. Gulf News reported early on Wednesday 29 April that US crude was trading at $99.93 a barrel, up 3.69%, and Brent at about $111.2, up nearly 3%. Traders were reacting to stalled peace talks, continued shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and doubts over an Iranian proposal to reopen the waterway in exchange for deferring nuclear talks. They were also digesting the UAE's planned exit from OPEC and OPEC+, effective 1 May.

Offshore Technology, citing Reuters, reported on 27 April that Brent had reached $108.36, a three-week high, after its biggest weekly gain since the conflict began, about 17%. Kpler data showed only one oil products tanker entered the Gulf on 26 April, and Goldman Sachs now expects normal Hormuz exports by end-June rather than mid-May.

“Unless relations between the US and Iran improve in the next two days, we could see a resumption of the bombing campaigns” — Kathleen Brooks, XTB, via S&P Global

How each outlet framed it

• Gulf News — the Gulf view: Murban, the region's own benchmark, at $107.2, and the UAE's break with OPEC.
• Offshore Technology — supply data: a Hormuz largely blocked by Tehran and Iran's ports blockaded by Washington.
• S&P Global — the turning point on 18–19 April: Iran declared the strait open, then reasserted control, traffic fell from 29 vessels to 8, and the US seized the Iranian ship Touska.
• Korea JoongAng Daily — the market split: the US extended its ceasefire with Iran, and Seoul stocks hit a record above 6,500 on the morning of 23 April.

What we don't know yet: when the strait will fully reopen. Gulf News notes that World Bank and S&P Global analysts cautioned prices may stay high even after traffic normalises, because of the need to rebuild inventories.