Climate News
El Niño odds climb: NOAA puts it at 61%, and the Philippines raises its alert to 79%
Forecasters on both sides of the Pacific are now treating El Niño as the most likely outcome for the second half of 2026. On 9 April, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave a 61% chance that El Niño emerges in May–July and lasts until at least the end of the year, IFLScience reported. It also noted that Copernicus had found March 2026 had the second-warmest global sea surface temperature on record, "reflecting a likely transition toward El Niño conditions".
On 22 April the Philippine weather agency PAGASA went further. The Daily Tribune reported that PAGASA had upgraded its El Niño status from watch to alert, with Administrator Nathaniel Servando putting the chance of El Niño in June–August at about 79%, and urging agencies and the public to take precautions.
El Niño, a periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific, can add up to about 0.2C to global temperatures. Carbon Brief's state-of-the-climate update said a strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for the second-warmest year, while Ars Technica asked whether it could be a tipping point.
"Next El Niño could be tipping point for a hotter climate." — headline, via Ars Technica
How each outlet framed it
- IFLScience — an explainer on NOAA's numbers and the likely effects, from US rainfall to hurricanes.
- Daily Tribune — the Philippine angle: a national alert and a call to prepare.
- Carbon Brief — the global temperature outlook for 2026.
- Ars Technica — the long-term question: does this El Niño push the climate to a new level?
Where the numbers differ: NOAA's 61% and PAGASA's 79% are not in conflict. They come from different agencies and cover different three-month windows.