Politics Talk

PSA: a 2-point poll lead is not news

Data analyst here, and every election season I lose a bit more faith in headlines. Some basics before the midterm coverage gets worse:

Margin of error applies to each candidate, so the uncertainty on the gap between them is roughly double what's printed. A 2-point lead with a 3-point margin is a tie.

One poll is a data point, not a trend. Look at averages.

Who was asked matters. 'Registered voters' vs 'likely voters' can swing results a lot.

Polls aren't useless. They're just less precise than the headlines pretend.