Economy Talk

400 million barrels released and oil still went back to $100. why?

Read the GONOM post on the IEA release twice because the numbers didn't seem to add up. A record 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, more than double the 2022 release, and Brent still touched $101 the next day.

The way I understand it: it's a stock versus flow thing. 400 million sounds enormous, but it's released over time, while exports from the region are down to 10–15% of normal and ships keep getting hit. A one-off pot doesn't fix a daily hole. Plus the market knows the reserves have to be refilled later.

Anyone who knows the oil side better than an accountant, happy to be corrected. Also the 10-year yield going from 3.97% to 4.24% since the war started is the bit that'll hit people's mortgages, not the headline oil number.