Economy News

IMF lifts world growth to 3.1% but warns resilience is 'reaching its limits'

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, from 3% in July, in its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, October 13, in Bangkok, where the IMF and World Bank are holding their annual meetings. The Guardian said the 2027 forecast was unchanged at 3.4%, US growth stayed at 2.3%, and the UK was upgraded to 1.3%. Global inflation is expected to be 4.7% this year.

Al Jazeera led with the Middle East and Central Asia, now forecast to shrink 0.3% after a projected 1.9% expansion in April, because of disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. It listed contractions of 16.7% for Kuwait, 16% for Iraq, 15.6% for Qatar and 3.3% for Saudi Arabia. The Korea Herald led with South Korea, raised by 0.7 points to 3.3%, citing strong chip exports.

“The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits.” — Silvana Tenreyro, IMF economic counsellor, via The Guardian

How each outlet framed it

• The Guardian — depleted oil stocks, stretched budgets and a modest boost for the UK chancellor.
• Al Jazeera — the war's cost to the Gulf, the only region expected to shrink.
• The Korea Herald — Korea's 'chip supercycle', growing faster than the world average.

What it means: The IMF said risks are “skewed to the downside”, naming a prolonged Middle East conflict, a reassessment of AI expectations and renewed trade tensions. The Guardian said it also warned of an AI-driven market crash.