Climate News

Met Office says this El Niño could be the strongest for over a century

The El Niño developing in the Pacific is likely to be the strongest for more than a century, the UK's Met Office said on 21 August. In a typical El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise by 1C to 2C. This time, forecasts point to record values of more than 3C in the coming months, Al Jazeera and The Guardian reported. The Met Office said the event is "very likely" to make 2027 the hottest year on record globally and, according to The Guardian, will push global temperatures temporarily above 1.5C.

"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event." — Prof Adam Scaife, Met Office, via The Guardian

Scaife said the strongest effects would be in the tropics, with "really severe droughts" expected in places such as South America and the west Pacific. The Met Office also said there is a higher risk of drought in southern Africa and north-east Australia, and that north-western Europe, including the UK, is likely to get wetter and stormier weather this autumn.

How each outlet framed it

• The Guardian — what it means for the UK, plus a scientist who called the Met Office forecast "some of the most conservative out there".
• Al Jazeera — the forecast set against this year's fires in Indonesia and southwestern Europe.
• The Korea Times — the AFP headline for Asian readers: "biggest for over a century".
• CTV News — the Canadian broadcaster led on records being broken and a likely hottest year.

Meaning and limits: the Met Office is not the only forecaster warning about this event. The US agency NOAA had already put the chance of a "very strong" event at more than 90%. But these are forecasts, and how strong El Niño becomes at its peak will only be known later.